Thursday, April 30, 2009

The Great Reset

The Great Reset is our attempt to describe the world as it emerges from the fog of the current crisis. Specifically, we look at where and what the nature of global demand will be like. Demand is king, not supply.

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Niall Fergusons describes Chimerica as the driving engine of the worlds economy. One half did the spending, one half did the saving. In all fairness, it wasnt just the US that did the spending, so did the UK, Spain and other countries now left with burst housing bubbles. Likewise, it wasnt just China that saved and accumulated huge amounts of US dollars to lend back to the USA to further fuel the cycle of Chimerica. So did Japan, Korea, Germany and the oil producing Middle East countries. But Fergusons Chimerica captured the essence of the imbalances nicely.

As these imbalances unwind, the way they unwind will send the world down several possible futures which weve termed Wounded Beast, Chasm and Abyss. Each possible future is a mixture of resource volatility, demand and political (un)stability that demands different responses and preparations. This is not a prediction of how the world will go of course, but rather something to ask yourself or your company how should I ready myself for a post-Chimerica world?

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